If you live in a storm-prone area, follow the advice of local authorities and evacuate if instructed to do so. This is a serious situation, as the National Hurricane Center predicts storm surges of 8 to 12 feet above ground level along Florida's western Gulf Coast, including the Tampa Bay area, if the highest swell occurs during high tide.
A hurricane and storm surge watch is in effect: A hurricane watch is in effect for much of Florida's western Gulf Coast, from Chocolowski to the mouth of the Suwannee River north, including Tampa Bay. This means that hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible in the watch area, usually within 48 hours.
A tropical storm watch extends north and south of the hurricane watch along Florida's Big Bend and southwest Florida's coast. The Yucatan Peninsula in northern Mexico is also under a hurricane and tropical storm warning.
A storm surge advisory extends from Flamingo north to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This means that a storm can cause a life-threatening rise in water levels, usually within 48 hours.
Here's the latest on Milton: The hurricane is churning in the western Gulf of Mexico, 720 miles southwest of Tampa. It is a strong Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph and an east-southeast direction of 9 mph.
Milton more than doubles the rapid intensity criteria. By 10 a.m. its winds had increased to 65 miles per hour. CDT Sunday at 11 a.m. CDT Monday at 160 mph. The 95 mph wind surge seen in the Atlantic basin in just 24 hours was one of the most extreme episodes of rapid intensification.
Impact prediction
The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center indicates that storm heights will reach 8 to 12 feet above ground level if combined with high tides along the west-central Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Storm surge is possible 5 to 10 feet south of Fort Myers Beach and north of Tampa Bay.
If the upper end of the forecast materializes for the Tampa Bay area, it will be the highest there in more than a century.
Totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible across the Florida peninsula, with up to 15 inches locally by Thursday. This can cause significant flash flooding and river flooding.
This system could bring damaging winds to Florida's western Gulf Coast beginning Wednesday. The strongest winds could cause structural damage, uproot trees and knock out power where downtown Milton will cross the coast, which is still uncertain.
Other areas from landfall points on the Florida peninsula will see some strong wind gusts that could at least bring down trees and cause scattered power outages.
All hurricane preparations or recovery and rebuilding efforts should be completed by Tuesday night. After these hours, such attempts can be dangerous.
Here's a look at the maximum wind threat based on Milton's current track. Please note that this forecast may change in future updates.
An isolated tornado threat may develop across west-central and south Florida Tuesday night. A few tornado threats will continue Wednesday and Wednesday night across the central and southern Florida peninsula.
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